Temos rastreado o valor financeiro das marcas de futebol há 15 anos e o projeto da Super Liga Europeia (ESL) provavelmente causou o maior abalo no jogo visto naquele tempo. Calculamos que - se a liga fosse adiante - os 12 clubes fundadores da ESL poderiam ter perdido um valor combinado da marca de 2,5 bilhões de euros. Conteúdo
Even though the ESL fancy was crushed almost as soon as it was announced, and our estimations – thankfully – will not be fully realised, the damage has been done and the football clubs behind the project have seen a €600m brand value loss from the fallout.
- O que poderia ter acontecido?
- vivendo o sonho americano?
- Qual é o dano? 1,1 bilhão de euros em receita por ano e as marcas sofreriam danos de reputação significativos, levando a uma queda no valor da marca de 2,5 bilhões de euros. Essa perda teria sido uma combinação de receita de transmissão mais baixa, comercial e dias de partida. O cenário assumiu que a UEFA não teria permitido que as equipes competissem na Liga dos Campeões e as ligas nacionais também teriam removido as equipes de suas listas. Houve indignação nos mercados domésticos de fãs e ligas, cujos efeitos serão sentidos nos próximos meses. Os doze clubes por trás do projeto ESL representam 56% disso
- What have we learned?
What could have happened?
In the most likely scenario, had the ESL gone ahead, we estimated that the annual loss for the Founding Clubs would have been €1.1bn in revenue a year and the brands would have all suffered significant reputational damage, leading to a drop in brand value of €2.5bn. This loss would have been a combination of lower broadcasting, commercial, and matchday revenue. The scenario assumed that the UEFA would not have allowed the teams to compete in the Champions League and the national leagues would also have removed the teams from their rosters.
For the ESL ‘Founding Clubs’ the prize seemed obvious – more money – but this ignored the huge risk that fans wouldn’t follow, and neither would the money. There was outrage in the home markets from fans and leagues alike, the effects of which will be felt for months to come.
Richard Haigh, Managing Director, Brand Finance
We value the top European football club brands each year, and at the 2020 measurement the top 50 were worth a total of €19.5bn. The twelve clubs behind the ESL project make up 56% of this - € 10,8 bilhões de euros. Isso destaca a posição comercial dominante que eles ocupam e provavelmente faz parte da razão pela qual eles pensaram que poderiam se safar do novo esquema sem sanções das ligas e associações domésticas. Touch
In addition, our analysis indicated that not only would the move have inflicted financial damage on the ESL Founding Clubs themselves, but also on the other clubs in their leagues, which may have lost up to 25% of their brand value.
Get in touch Para discutir com nossa equipe de serviços de esportes como o lançamento fracassado da Super Liga Europeia poderia afetar as finanças da sua marca nos próximos meses.
Living the American Dream? Nos EUA e na China, as ligas domésticas são de longe as mais populares, conforme medidas nas Finanças da marca
If not from the domestic markets, then the revenue would have had to come from the US or China, but an uplift in either of these geographies would have been unlikely. In both the US and China, the domestic leagues are by far the most popular as measured in Brand Finance’s Pesquisa de fãs de futebol. 31% dos fãs dos EUA preferem futebol da Major League e 21% dos fãs chineses preferem a super liga chinesa - e esses números já estão fortalecendo ano a ano. Ambos são países que colocarão mais prontamente seus recursos para as marcas de equipes cultivadas em casa do que as estrangeiras se a oportunidade se apresentar. Como vimos em nossos estudos de outras indústrias, as marcas chinesas estão crescendo rapidamente. Muitas dessas marcas, como a gigante imobiliária Evergrande, estão começando a se tornar além do mercado doméstico e é apenas uma questão de tempo até começarmos a ouvir sobre os clubes de futebol chinês com mais regularidade. Se os clubes fundadores da ESL pensam que o mercado chinês é um vácuo disponível para eles preencherem, eles estão em choque desagradável, pois há apenas uma verdadeira "super liga" na China.
China is no longer an undeveloped market for European and North American football brands to grow. As we have seen in our studies of other industries, Chinese brands are growing fast. Many of these brands, like real estate giant Evergrande, are starting to become known beyond the domestic market and it is only a matter of time before we start hearing about Chinese football clubs more regularly.
In 2011, President Xi Jinping announced his dream to see China win the World Cup – a dream many thought impossible, but as a result, the game has received investment at all levels in the country. If the ESL Founding Clubs think that the Chinese market is a vacuum available for them to fill, they are in for a nasty shock as there’s only one true ‘super league’ in China.
Richard Haigh, diretor administrativo, Financeiros da marca
Qual é o dano? É improvável que as marcas de clube em questão levantem o mesmo apelo a fãs e patrocinadores, e o sentimento negativo ao redor da ESL prejudicou as associações emocionais e afetou os atributos que os patrocinadores valorizam muito bem, como o patrimônio forte, o envolvimento da comunidade e o ponto de confiança que pode ser o que é um pouco de confiança. Para reduzir os gastos com dias de partida e a receita comercial, que ainda é a participação do leão da renda de qualquer clube europeu. Os fãs leais dos clubes ingleses já veem a inversão de marcha como uma vitória e podem se orgulhar de que suas vozes tenham sido ouvidas e que tenham influência na direção do clube; Mas será necessário mais do que uma declaração de vídeo para reconquistar sua fé nos proprietários. Os clubes precisarão mostrar um compromisso específico com os atributos danificados por meio de ações e não palavras-se comunicando com os grupos de fãs melhor regularmente e envolvendo-os no processo de tomada de decisão muito mais do que tem sido o caso até o momento. à desigualdade no futebol que fez com que os 12 clubes se considerassem intocáveis. As ligas, por outro lado, precisarão considerar a reação dos fãs como um aviso e garantir que eles também respeitem os problemas levantados. Isso poderia trazer mais escrutínio no novo formato da Liga dos Campeões, que oferece ainda mais segurança aos "grandes clubes" do continente. A decisão estratégica, e isso levou a uma reação defensiva ao anúncio. Nem os fãs nem os reguladores pareciam ter sido consultados adequadamente. Os clubes perderam a oportunidade de entregar aos fãs globais para o que eles claramente têm o apetite. 2021
Although the ESL Founding Clubs will not see the full €2.5bn brand value loss we forecast, their brand strength and therefore also brand value have undoubtedly been damaged. The club brands in question are unlikely to carry the same appeal to fans and sponsors, and the negative sentiment around the ESL has damaged emotional associations and affected attributes that sponsors value very highly, such as strong heritage, community engagement, and trustworthiness.
The sentiment of fans online towards the ESL project was overwhelmingly negative, with negative posts outweighing positive ones 3 to 1. The sour taste left by the ESL may lead to lower matchday spend and commercial revenue, which is still the lion’s share of any European club’s income.
Hugo Hensley, Head of Sports Services, Brand Finance
Rebuilding the brands will take different actions for the different stakeholders and relationships impacted. Loyal fans of the English clubs already see the U-turn as a win and can be proud that their voices were heard and that they have an influence on the club’s direction; but it will take more than a video statement to win back their faith in the owners. The clubs will need to show a specific commitment to the damaged attributes through actions not words – communicating with fan groups better on a regular basis and involving them in the decision-making process much more than it has been the case to date.
It is a different story for the national leagues and associations, governments, UEFA and FIFA – they will be weary of these clubs attempting to seize power again, but they should also recognise that they have contributed to the inequality in football that caused the 12 clubs to consider themselves untouchable.
The clubs will need to convince the regulating stakeholders of their loyalty, and that might mean conceding a greater proportion of domestic revenue distribution. The leagues, on the other hand, will need to take the fan reaction as a warning and make sure they also respect the issues raised. This could bring more scrutiny on the Champions League new format, which gives even more security to the continent’s ‘big clubs’.
What have we learned?
There are three key takeaways relevant to all brands, including clubs and sponsors, which come from the ESL’s poor communication, weak marketing, and misjudged positioning:
- There was a lack of communication with all stakeholders before the strategic decision, and this led to a defensive reaction to the announcement. Neither the fans nor the regulators seemed to have been properly consulted.
- The marketing of the new plans was uninspiring – it was announced as a legal agreement between businesses, and not an exciting opportunity to break out of a structure that most agree isn’t working perfectly. The clubs missed an opportunity to deliver global fans what they clearly have the appetite for.
- The positioning didn’t work for local markets, but our research also shows that football fans’ preferences in the key target market of China are much more driven by community attributes like passionate fans, strong heritage, and tradition – these were all damaged by the ESL reaction and show a misjudgement on the part of the clubs.
